Export competition
Chinese exports displaced from the U.S. are redirected to other markets, eroding the exports of a third-country sharing those other markets. ECI predicts the resulting percentage decline in a country's exports.
Spillovers from U.S.-China trade tensions
The Remains of Trade
Interactive exposure indices for third-country spillovers from U.S.-China trade tensions.
Work in progress. The paper and index values may be updated as the dataset and methodology evolve.
Methodology
What the indices are designed to capture
Import competition
Those same redirected goods can raise import penetration in the third-country's domestic market. ICI predicts the percentage decline in domestic sales of import-competing producers.
Consumer gains
Cheaper Chinese exports lower the prices buyers pay. CGI predicts the percentage decline in import prices.
Sourcing gains
Cheaper intermediate inputs from China cut production costs downstream. SGI predicts the percentage increase in a country's exports through input-output links.
Interactive atlas
Explore exposure by index
Choose an index and one of its variants, then hover over the map to compare economies. Click any country to open its profile below. See the data dictionary for the full definition of every column.
World map
Hover over a country for details.
Country profile
Explore exposure by country
Select an economy to see where it stands on the four main channels, then inspect the products driving each one. See the data dictionary.
Selected country
Select a country
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Top products
Products contributing most to this country's index value.
| Rank | Product | Share | Contribution |
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Rankings and comparisons
Distribution, top economies, and cross-index relationships
Top economies
Highest values for the selected index.
| Rank | Country | Value |
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Relationship with another index
Pick a comparison index to inspect correlations visually.
Pearson correlation-
Rank (Spearman) correlation-
Product explorer
See which countries are most affected by a product
Choose a product code and an index family to see which countries have that product among their most exposed, ranked by how much it contributes to their overall index value.
Most affected countries
Hover over a country for details.
Price shocks by product
All products with a price-shock estimate, ranked by the size of the shock. Click a row to load that product above.
| Rank | HS6 | Description | China export share to US | Tariff change | Price shock |
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Downloads and reproducibility